A new research paper has been published titled “E-cigarette Flavor Restrictions’ Effects on Tobacco Product Sales“.
Introduction & Methods
In the US over 375 localities and 7 States have permanent restrictions on flavoured Vapes (ENDS = Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems).
The study was proposed to investigate whether tobacco sales increased in areas where flavoured vapes were banned / restricted.
Data was collated by using the IRI (Information Resources Incorporated) retail sales figures on vapes and cigarettes. These figures cover 44 states from January 2018 up to March 2023.
The base unit for vapes was a 0.7ml pod and packs for cigarettes. Also the data on which vape flavours were purchased is included.
The age of purchasers was taken into account to specify which products were more appealing to different age groups.
Plus the impact of restrictions were tracked – at the start of the data collection period 2.1% of the residents were covered by a flavour restriction. By the end of the collection period 15% were covered.
Results
The results show that from January 2018 to March 2023 the average person purchased 2.635 packs of cigarettes per 4-week period.
Over the same time the average sales for 0.7ml units of e-liquid were 0.48 per person in 4 weeks.
Vape sales following a flavour ban
Also brands which were generally more appealing to youth smokers increased sales after flavour bans.
In areas where flavours had a full ban there was a 0.354% reduction in vape sales alongside a 0.2 increase in cigarette pack sales per person.
Cigarette sales following a flavour ban
There are a lot more in-depth statistics in the full paper, I am just summarising some of the main points.
Conclusions
I copy and paste from the Abstract of the paper…
“Matching new flavor policy data to retail sales data, we find a trade off of 15 additional cigarettes for every 1 less 0.7 mL ENDS pod sold due to ENDS flavor restrictions. Further, cigarette sales increase even among brands disproportionately used by underage youth. Thus, any public health benefits of reducing ENDS use via flavor restrictions may be offset by public health costs from increased cigarette sales.”
As said above – every 0.7ml vape pod not sold due to the restrictions, a further 15 additional cigarettes are purchased. Which is pretty shocking!
“In this study, we find that ENDS flavor policies reduce flavored ENDS sales as intended, but also increase cigarette sales across age groups. As cigarettes are much more lethal than ENDS, the high rate of substitution estimated here suggests that, on net, any population health benefits of ENDS flavor policies are likely small or even negative.”