From tobacco harm reduction (THR) leader to pursuer of prohibition? Comparing the UK's pre and post Tobacco and Vapes Bill's trajectories.
A new Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction (GSTHR) report highlights how vaping is set to surpass smoking in the UK by 2025. Since the introduction of vaping products, smoking rates have nearly halved, falling from 23.7% of adults in 2005 to 12.9% in 2022. Government endorsement of safer nicotine alternatives, like vaping, is a key factor in this decline. Policies such as the NHS-backed “swap to stop” initiative, which offers vape starter kits to smokers, exemplify how effective harm reduction strategies can drive down smoking rates. This shift showcases the UK’s progressive approach to THR.
The briefing also stresses the role of research, including a landmark 2015 report by Public Health England, which concluded that vapes are 95% less harmful than cigarettes. With this evidence, the UK government had made vapes widely accessible to adults and actively encourages smokers to switch. If these trends were to continue, the UK would be on track to meet its goal of becoming a smoke-free nation by 2030. The GSTHR notes that this transition isn’t just consumer-led but also reflects pragmatic policymaking that supports public health objectives by focusing on reducing the use of combustible cigarettes.
Similarly, newly released data by the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that smoking rates among young adults in the UK have drastically declined over the past decade. In 2023, fewer than 10% of 18-24-year-olds smoked, down from 25% just 12 years ago. The overall adult smoking rate dropped to 12%, with around 6 million smokers. Meanwhile, vaping rates continue to rise, particularly among younger adults, with nearly 16% of 16-24-year-olds using e-cigarettes.
The bill ignores adult vapers who formerly smoked
Sadly however, desite this success achieved via vaping, the UK seems to be turing onto itself with new restrictions on vaping products proposed in the updated Tobacco and Vapes Bill. Discussing this sad state of affairs on his blog page, local tobacco harm reduction expert Clive Bates, called the bill “a Misfire and a Backfire.”
Bates reiterated that the anti-vaping measures aimed at protecting youth could have detrimental effects on adult smokers, particularly those from low-income or disadvantaged backgrounds. These individuals may rely on vaping as a less harmful alternative to smoking. By making vaping more expensive and less accessible (through measures like banning disposable vapes, taxing products, and restricting flavours), the government risks dissuading adult smokers from switching to vaping. The anticipated rise in adult smoking due to these measures would likely negate any potential benefits for youth vaping.
In line with the concerns raised by the GSTHR report, Bates highlighted the Swap to Stop initiative, which has been launched in collaboration with the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, could also be undermined by these restrictive policies. The measures proposed in the bill will likely discourage adult smokers from switching to vaping, which would result in a significant health improvement. By including non-combustible tobacco products in anti-smoking measures, the government risks undermining the effectiveness of vaping as a cessation aid, as seen in the program, explained Bates.
On discussing the bill with Bates, Vaping Post learned that any changes that may have occoured between May (when he wrote his detailed blog) to now, if anything are for the worse. “The situation has only worsened under the new Labour government. It fervently believes that reducing smoking can help the National Health Service through its endless struggle. I agree: but for that to work, they need to focus on middle-age smokers in poorer communities – and vaping is one of the best approaches for that.”
In response to whether he is aware of any updates, Bates added that if anything, the situation seems set on becoming even worse. “Yet since it has come into office, the Labour government has maintained the anti-vaping policies and rhetoric of its Tory predecessor, and there are rumours it plans to extend them with bans on vaping indoors. We will know more when the Tobacco and Vapes Bill is republished and when we see the tax plans in the Autumn Budget.
How would UK vapers respond to the restrictions?
Meanwhile, a recent survey conducted via OnePoll.com, of over 1,000 UK vapers revealed that more than half (52%) may revert to smoking if the proposed 2025 vaping ban is enforced. Commissioned by nicotine pouch brand Ubbs and retailer Haypp in anticipation of the Government’s controversial new Tobacco and Vapes Bill, the survey highlighted that 85% of vapers are former smokers. A quarter have already attempted to quit vaping, with some switching to cigarettes (36%), nicotine pouches (26%), or gum (25%).
Moreover, a significant portion of vapers in the UK reported being prepared to turn to unregulated vape products from the black market if the proposed vaping ban is enforced, with 39% likely to purchase such products despite understanding the risks. Over half of users prioritize product flavour and aroma over safety and quality. In fact, vape bans in countries like Australia have unintentionally fueled black market growth.
Despite restrictions, a thriving illicit trade has emerged, with consumers seeking unregulated vape products. Australia’s strict nicotine vaping laws, which classify nicotine as a prescription-only substance, have pushed many users to turn to illegal sources. This underground market not only undermines the intended public health goals but also exposes consumers to potentially dangerous, unregulated products. Similar trends have been observed in other countries/regions with strict vape bans, highlighting the challenge of controlling demand through prohibition.
Meanwhile, only 28% of the vapers participating in the UK survey said they have considered trying alternatives like cigarettes, nicotine gum, or pouches. Markus Lindbald from Haypp highlighted Sweden’s success with nicotine pouches in reducing smoking rates, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the UK.